Bayesian Linear Models

class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide

.title[
# Bayesian Linear Models
]
.subtitle[
## 04 - Binary outcomes
]
.author[
### Stefano Coretta
]
.institute[
### University of Edinburgh
]
.date[
### 2023/07/07
]

---

## The MALD data: Accuracy

---

layout: true

## Binary outcomes

---

```r
rt_bm_5 <- brm(
  ACC ~ IsWord,
  data = mald,
  family = "bernoulli",
  backend = "cmdstanr",
  cores = 4,
  file = "./data/cache/rt_bm_5",
  seed = my_seed
)
```

.bg-washed-blue.b--dark-blue.ba.bw2.br3.shadow-5.ph4.mt2[
- Bernoulli is the family of probability distributions used for binary variables.
]

---

```
## Population-Level Effects: 
##             Estimate Est.Error l-89% CI u-89% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept      -2.24      0.09    -2.38    -2.11 1.00     2604     2534
## IsWordFALSE     0.43      0.11     0.25     0.61 1.00     3484     2713
```

What are those numbers?!

---

---

---

<br>

```r
round(plogis(-2.24), 2)
```

```
## [1] 0.1
```

```r
round(plogis(-2.24 + 0.43), 2)
```

```
## [1] 0.14
```